After The Morning After
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Okay, it’s a day late, but Cory Booker deserved his full due. So, here at last is a look at Tuesday’s election races.
There were three big losers, I think, but at the top of the list is Elon Musk. It’s not just that he spent $25 million, paid people bribes to vote and went there to personally campaign – for what was a crushing defeat. Worse for him is that it could really cause a wedge between him and Trump, who said today that Musk would be leaving “DOGE” soon. (Whether he actually will be leaving, of course, remains to be seen. But at least that’s the immediate reaction Trump had the next morning after the disastrous results.) But more problematic than that for Musk is that it risks causing a wedge with candidates who might start to see him as toxic to their own re-election campaigns and not someone to fear as much, even if he finances primary challenges to them. (The only ones who would fear such challenges are those MAGOP incumbents in deep Red districts, and those seats are going to stay MAGOP anyway. But in a purple district – just as we saw in a purple state like Wisconsin, Musk’s money and personal support could be seen by them as a major detriment.)
But this Wisconsin result is a big loss for Trump, too – much as he might want to dump it all on Musk. Not only did he endorse the losing MAGOP candidate, but he also held tele-Town Halls for the very conservative Brad Schimel. And the campaign slogan that the party ran on was — “A vote for Schimel is a vote for Trump.” And liberal Susan Crawford won by a crushing 10 point. But it’s worse than that – because a Democrat-supported candidate to win by this much (10 points and have the race called as almost-shockingly early as it was in a 50-50 state so Purple that any win bigger than razor-thin is almost considered a landslide is actually a landslide, and problematic for Trump.
And the thing is, though Wisconsin was the major story, especially for Democrats because they didn’t win the two races in Florida, those races in Florida shouldn’t be overlooked – because they were actually a very big deal for Democrats, as well.
Even though Democrats lost both, and the two races weren’t as close as it was thought they might be (including thought possible by MAGOPs) – it was never really expected that Democrats would win, yet the closeness of the margins compared to what Trump had won by just months ago is significant. It’s not just that Democrats gained 19 and 17 points (which is a major deal when that happens anywhere), but did so in deeply Red districts. And this is a point that I don’t think got stressed enough in most analysis. To be sure, it did get referenced as a valuable “point” to make – but I think the point goes deeper. That’s because I suspect it’s much harder to do something as simple as just pick up almost any votes in deep Red or Blue districts, since the vote there isn’t just Red or Blue, but is rock-solid entrenched (the very reason it’s deep Red or Blue), as opposed to a Purple district, or one that might “lean” in one direction or the other. In such close districts, the very reason they’re Purple (or “flexible”) is less because of how Democrats and MAGOPs vote, but because of how Independents vote. So, while such huge shifts as 19 and 17 points is a big deal in any race anywhere – it’s substantially significant, I think, when you somehow are able to do that in a district that is entrenched in stone.
Furthermore, this lost of 19-17 points in two races confirms what we’ve seen in five other Special Elections since Trump took office. This isn’t a one-off, it’s a pattern. It isn’t a bug, it’s a feature.
As a result, MAGOP candidates who represent Purple districts or in districts that they won by even as much as, say, 7-8 points, must be terrified. As well they should be.
How terrible for MAGOPs were all the races on Tuesday? Well, don’t take my word for it (or for much anything…), here’s what Steven Bannon said about it: “We got blown out” — and predicted the party would lose the House in the Mid-Terms and Trump would get impeached. (Okay, in fairness, don’t take Steve Bannon’s word either, about anything. But…well, you get the point.)
And that finally brings me to the third big loser on Tuesday, someone who didn’t even get mentioned in the post-race analysis Rep. Elise Stefanik. The fourth-ranking member of MAGOP House leadership, she was poised to become the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., when Trump suddenly pulled her nomination out of fear that his party might actually lose both Florida races, and he couldn’t afford losing her open-seat that would be holding a Special Election later in the year. But the two Florida races were won by MAGOPs, and what would have been Stefanik’s open seat is no longer needed. So, she not only lost her U.N. ambassadorship, but also her position in party leadership. For nothing. Of course, it’s certainly possible that Trump will now re-nominate her, and she’ll get the position after all. Or not – who knows, this is Trump. But even if she does, being a ping pong ball (and an uncertain one at that) is hardly the place she expected to be today, most especially when envisioning her dreams as a possible rising star in the party. Now, at best, she’s a bouncing ball.
But still, the biggest loser on Tuesday. Elon Musk. With Trump running neck-and-neck a close second. Not helping himself the day after by enacting 25% tariffs on pretty much everyone. And delusionally thinking this was something the American public – even his most loyal base – would see as a Day of Liberation. Dementia works like that, sometimes. Especially when you then walk away without signing your Executive Order and have to be led back to the desk to do so.
But of course, in the end, this terrible day for MAGOPs wasn’t about Trump or Musk or even Elise Stefanik or any of the candidates who lost or won by far-smaller margins than helpful. It’s about the elected MAGOPs in Congress who enable Trump and enable it all and actually enact the deeply unpopular policies which is what makes them their own.
And if any MAGOP thinks things will get better for the party, they won’t. Because Trump didn’t surround himself with capable people who can get him out of this mess — he surrounded himself with sycophants and acolytes who are unqualified, out of their depths (and lest anyone think this is hyperbole, witness people like drunk and accused rapit Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Health & Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. — cutting funds to states during a measles epidemic, AG Pam Bondi who once accepted a bribe from Trump to drop an investigation of him, billionaire Commerce Secretary Howard “my mother-in-law wouldn’t complain if she didn’t get a Social Security check” Lutnick, Trump envoy to Russia Steve “I like Putin and trust him” Witkoff, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz who accidentally invites a journalist into a classified attack planning group chat and so many more — including even VP “JD Vance,” who once called Trump an “American Hitler” but has now gone all-in and become full toady.
And of course, topping it off, having someone leading them all and the party who has dementia which is degenerative and not getting better.
Okay, it’s a day late, but Cory Booker deserved his full due. So, here at last is a look at Tuesday’s election races.
There were three big losers, I think, but at the top of the list is Elon Musk. It’s not just that he spent $25 million, paid people bribes to vote and went there to personally campaign – for what was a crushing defeat. Worse for him is that it could really cause a wedge between him and Trump, who said today that Musk would be leaving “DOGE” soon. (Whether he actually will be leaving, of course, remains to be seen. But at least that’s the immediate reaction Trump had the next morning after the disastrous results.) But more problematic than that for Musk is that it risks causing a wedge with candidates who might start to see him as toxic to their own re-election campaigns and not someone to fear as much, even if he finances primary challenges to them. (The only ones who would fear such challenges are those MAGOP incumbents in deep Red districts, and those seats are going to stay MAGOP anyway. But in a purple district – just as we saw in a purple state like Wisconsin, Musk’s money and personal support could be seen by them as a major detriment.)
But this Wisconsin result is a big loss for Trump, too – much as he might want to dump it all on Musk. Not only did he endorse the losing MAGOP candidate, but he also held tele-Town Halls for the very conservative Brad Schimel. And the campaign slogan that the party ran on was — “A vote for Schimel is a vote for Trump.” And liberal Susan Crawford won by a crushing 10 point. But it’s worse than that – because a Democrat-supported candidate to win by this much (10 points and have the race called as almost-shockingly early as it was in a 50-50 state so Purple that any win bigger than razor-thin is almost considered a landslide is actually a landslide, and problematic for Trump.
And the thing is, though Wisconsin was the major story, especially for Democrats because they didn’t win the two races in Florida, those races in Florida shouldn’t be overlooked – because they were actually a very big deal for Democrats, as well.
Even though Democrats lost both, and the two races weren’t as close as it was thought they might be (including thought possible by MAGOPs) – it was never really expected that Democrats would win, yet the closeness of the margins compared to what Trump had won by just months ago is significant. It’s not just that Democrats gained 19 and 17 points (which is a major deal when that happens anywhere), but did so in deeply Red districts. And this is a point that I don’t think got stressed enough in most analysis. To be sure, it did get referenced as a valuable “point” to make – but I think the point goes deeper. That’s because I suspect it’s much harder to do something as simple as just pick up almost any votes in deep Red or Blue districts, since the vote there isn’t just Red or Blue, but is rock-solid entrenched (the very reason it’s deep Red or Blue), as opposed to a Purple district, or one that might “lean” in one direction or the other. In such close districts, the very reason they’re Purple (or “flexible”) is less because of how Democrats and MAGOPs vote, but because of how Independents vote. So, while such huge shifts as 19 and 17 points is a big deal in any race anywhere – it’s substantially significant, I think, when you somehow are able to do that in a district that is entrenched in stone.
Furthermore, this lost of 19-17 points in two races confirms what we’ve seen in five other Special Elections since Trump took office. This isn’t a one-off, it’s a pattern. It isn’t a bug, it’s a feature.
As a result, MAGOP candidates who represent Purple districts or in districts that they won by even as much as, say, 7-8 points, must be terrified. As well they should be.
How terrible for MAGOPs were all the races on Tuesday? Well, don’t take my word for it (or for much anything…), here’s what Steven Bannon said about it: “We got blown out” — and predicted the party would lose the House in the Mid-Terms and Trump would get impeached. (Okay, in fairness, don’t take Steve Bannon’s word either, about anything. But…well, you get the point.)
And that finally brings me to the third big loser on Tuesday, someone who didn’t even get mentioned in the post-race analysis Rep. Elise Stefanik. The fourth-ranking member of MAGOP House leadership, she was poised to become the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., when Trump suddenly pulled her nomination out of fear that his party might actually lose both Florida races, and he couldn’t afford losing her open-seat that would be holding a Special Election later in the year. But the two Florida races were won by MAGOPs, and what would have been Stefanik’s open seat is no longer needed. So, she not only lost her U.N. ambassadorship, but also her position in party leadership. For nothing. Of course, it’s certainly possible that Trump will now re-nominate her, and she’ll get the position after all. Or not – who knows, this is Trump. But even if she does, being a ping pong ball (and an uncertain one at that) is hardly the place she expected to be today, most especially when envisioning her dreams as a possible rising star in the party. Now, at best, she’s a bouncing ball.
But still, the biggest loser on Tuesday. Elon Musk. With Trump running neck-and-neck a close second. Not helping himself the day after by enacting 25% tariffs on pretty much everyone. And delusionally thinking this was something the American public – even his most loyal base – would see as a Day of Liberation. Dementia works like that, sometimes. Especially when you then walk away without signing your Executive Order and have to be led back to the desk to do so.
But of course, in the end, this terrible day for MAGOPs wasn’t about Trump or Musk or even Elise Stefanik or any of the candidates who lost or won by far-smaller margins than helpful. It’s about the elected MAGOPs in Congress who enable Trump and enable it all and actually enact the deeply unpopular policies which is what makes them their own.
And if any MAGOP thinks things will get better for the party, they won’t. Because Trump didn’t surround himself with capable people who can get him out of this mess — he surrounded himself with sycophants and acolytes who are unqualified, out of their depths (and lest anyone think this is hyperbole, witness people like drunk and accused rapit Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Health & Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. — cutting funds to states during a measles epidemic, AG Pam Bondi who once accepted a bribe from Trump to drop an investigation of him, billionaire Commerce Secretary Howard “my mother-in-law wouldn’t complain if she didn’t get a Social Security check” Lutnick, Trump envoy to Russia Steve “I like Putin and trust him” Witkoff, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz who accidentally invites a journalist into a classified attack planning group chat and so many more — including even VP “JD Vance,” who once called Trump an “American Hitler” but has now gone all-in and become full toady.
And of course, topping it off, having someone leading them all and the party who has dementia which is degenerative and not getting better.